Gerrit Cole Has Officially Been A Free Agent For Less Than A Week And Early Rumors Suggest That Won’t Change Anytime Soon
By unsurprisingly rejecting the Astros’ qualifying offer last Thursday, Gerrit Cole officially became this off-season’s most coveted free agent. While a dark horse could always emerge (as we saw with the Padres and Manny Machado last year), Cole will most likely land with either the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, or Phillies, all teams who have deep pockets and a glaring need for an elite ace.
Cole is represented by the infamous Scott Boras, who almost certainly has his eyes on securing his superstar client a record setting contract and who almost always gets what he wants, that’s why he’s the best agent in baseball. However, as we’ve seen in recent years with Boras’ biggest clients (i.e. Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, JD Martinez), general managers will likely have to be patient and play the Boras waiting game if they want to win the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes. With a very talented group of free agent pitchers combined with the need for arms, a pro-longed decision by Cole could ultimately give the Yankees the advantage they need to secure their future ace.
As the hot stove heats up, so will the rumors, but before that happens let’s take a look at how Cole delaying his decision effects each of the current teams in pursuit of his services.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The best team in the NL throughout the 2019 regular season was destined for a 3rd straight World Series appearance before being upset by the now champion Nationals in a dramatic Game 5 of the NLDS. With a young, talented line-up, ace Clayton Kershaw, and lockdown closer Kenley Jansen all under control in the coming seasons, the Dodgers remain well positioned to compete for a title in 2020. However, in order to finally reach the mountain top, they’ll need to bolster a rotation that will likely not include Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill, both of whom have hit the free agent market.
Effects of a Delayed Cole Decision
A delayed Cole decision would hurt the Dodgers for 2 primary reasons. First, they’ve consistently had one of the highest payrolls in the MLB for several years now and currently stand at $165 million for 2020 before 11 players, including as Walker Bueller, go to arbitration. With the Luxury Tax threshold expected to be around $208 million next season and their young core set to receive substantial salary increases in the coming years, can the Dodgers afford to sign Cole for $30 mil/year and another middle of the rotation starter? Management has not be hesitant to spend in the past, but as we saw with the Yankees, eventually every team relents to the dreaded Luxury Tax.
Second, the Dodgers need to add multiple starting pitchers. Kershaw remains one of the leagues best, but with a history of injuries in recent years and well documented playoff struggles, he’s simply not capable of carrying the team to a World Series alone. If the last 3 World Series champions have shown us anything, it’s that you need at least 2 (ideally 3) top-tier starters to win it all. The Dallas Keuchel disaster last off-season served as a warning sign for this year’s free agent class, and we should see a lot more players sign much quicker. Is going all in on Cole and subsequently letting the likes of Wheeler, Bumgardner, Porcello, and Keuchel sign elsewhere a risk the Dodgers are really willing to take?
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels made a statement early this off-season by bringing home manager Joe Maddon to turnaround a franchise that has not made an appearance in October since 2014 and are coming off of 4 straight losing seasons. The Angels consistently have ranked in the top 10 of highest payrolls in the league and owner Arte Moreno has shown a willingness to pay top dollar for superstars, which bodes well for their chances of landing Cole. However, the Angels are extremely top heavy, with 5 players accounting for over 83% of their 2020 payroll that currently stands at $135 million (not including arbitration eligible players). In recent years, the Angels payroll has hovered in the range of $170 million, but with the addition of Maddon I fully expect Moreno is willing to substantially increase that number for 2020 and flirt with the Luxury Tax threshold in order to turn the Angels back into a contender.
Effects of a Delayed Cole Decision
It’s a well known fact that Gerrit Cole is an LA native who’s expressed interest in spending the remainder of his career in his hometown, and the Angels are well aware of the strategic advantage that gives them. The issue is that the Angels need more than just one ace in order to get themselves in contention for 2020. In 2019, the Angels had 8 pitchers who started over 10 games, none of which had an ERA below 4.50. Needless to say, that’s an issue. While adding Cole would give the rotation a huge boost, if the Angels really want to build a playoff caliber team they’ll need a several other proven and reliable arms. Unless they can somehow convince Cole to sign with them quickly, they’ll likely need to look to more affordable arms on shorter terms deals in order to manage the payroll and provide depth to a team that isn’t too far way from being a contender
Philidelphia Phillies
The biggest story of the off-season last year was where Bryce Harper would land. Well as we all know he ended up signing a 13yr contract with the Phillies, who also ended up trading for catcher JT Realmuto and SS Jean Segura. While promising on paper, 2019 didn’t exactly go how the Phillies imagined, finishing 4th in the NL East with a .500 record and missing the playoffs. With the emergence of young pitchers Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin, a core of reliable position players such as Rhys Hopkins and Cesar Hernandez, and a stable of veterans, the Phillies are only a few pieces away from being a contender in the NL East.
Effects of a Delayed Cole Decision
Arrieta, Realmuto, Hernandez, and Jay Bruce are all heading into the final year of their contracts, which translates to about $42 million that will be coming off the books after this season. None of those players are likely to be re-signed at their current prices, so the Phillies can afford to go after multiple high priced free agents. The biggest decision the Phillies need to make isn’t whether they’ll shell out top dollars, it’s to whom those dollars should go to. The Phillies have holes at 3B, CF, RF, and most notably the bullpen, with closer David Robertson likely to miss all of 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. It’s expected that GM Matt Klentak’s primary focus will be to aggressively pursue Anthony Rendon, so if that’s the case, Cole delaying his decision until January would be beneficial to Phillies by allowing them to focus on their other needs first.
New York Yankees
The Yankees entered Spring Training as the favorites to win it all in 2019, carrying with them World Series or bust expectations. After a roller-coaster, injury plagued regular season that resulted in 103 wins and an AL East title, the Yankees made quick work of the Twins in the ALDS, but flamed out in the ALCS by losing to the Astros in 6 games. Looking towards 2020, the Yankees only have one glaring hole that needs to be filled: acquiring a true #1 ace to lead a rotation that will include Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton. For the past several years, Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman made it of the utmost importance to stay under the Luxury Tax threshold and were successful in doing so, setting them up to enter this free-agency season with blank checks ready to be written.
Effects of a Delayed Cole Decision
Unlike the other 3 teams mentioned above, the Yankees sole focus this off-season will be adding a true #1 starter. The majority of the fan base feels that anybody other than Cole or Strasburg would be considered a miss, and after failing to sign or trade for several ace’s that were available in recent years (Corbin, Sale, Cole, Verlander, and so forth), I firmly believe the message has gotten through to the organization. Looking at Cashman’s history of off-season moves, it wouldn’t surprise me if he used the Winter Meetings to acquire an ace via trade, as the Yankees have a deep farm system and major league log jam. If Cole does decide to delay his decision, it buys Cashman more time to explore such a trade while still having his check ready to go whenever Boras calls.
Prediction
When the dust settles and teams start loading up the trucks headed to Spring Training, Gerrit Cole will be en-route to Tampa as the newest member of the New York Yankees on a 6yr, $250 million contract
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