Addressing Their Needs: Offseason Options For The New York Yankees

With the 2019 season behind us and the Hot Stove just starting to heat up, let’s take a look at where the Yankees need to improve for 2020 and how they can do so

After an abrupt end to 2019 thanks to Jose Altuve and the sign stealing Astros, the Yankees face immense pressure to improve their roster heading into what’s considered to be a World Series or bust 2020 season. Aside from the obvious need to upgrade the starting rotation, additional holes must be filled left by an injured Aaron Hicks, retiring CC Sabathia, and free agents Betances, Didi, Gardy, Edwin, Cameron Maybin, and Romine.

From signing new faces, to trades, to bringing back some beloved veterans, the Yankees have many options to improve a roster that fell 6 wins short of #28 last season. Let’s take a look.

Needs

While many will label the 2019 season as a failure, the Yankees managed to win 103 games, run away with the AL East division title that included the reigning champion Red Sox, and swept the home run record setting Twins in the ALDS. Those stats are impressive on their own, but even more so when you factor in that the Yankees accomplished all of this despite almost every one of their starters spending a significant amount of time on the IL. With the majority of their core returning (and hopefully healthy), there are only a few key areas where the Yankees need to look to improve:

• Starting Pitching: While Sevy, Tanaka, and Paxton are a formidable trio, none are a true shut-down ace, something that’s become a necessity to have in order to win in October. There’s also a void on the backend of the rotation that will need to be addressed with the retirement of CC Sabathia and uncertainties surrounding Domingo Herman (possible suspension) and Jordan Montgomery (coming off of Tommy John)
• Outfield: With Aaron Hicks set to miss at least the first half of 2020 and Giancarlo Stanton spending more time on the IL than in LF the past two years, only Aaron Judge can currently be relied on as an everyday outfielder.
• Shortstop: The Yankees opted not to extend Didi Gregorious a qualifying offer, thus making him a free agent. There’s still a chance he could return in 2020, but if not, Cashman will need to get creative in order to fill the position

Pitchers:

To address the rotation needs, the Yankees will almost certainly look to the free-agent market. There are two ways to go about doing so: either sign 1 of the 2 elite aces available or add depth through signing 2 of the many other available arms.

1. Do whatever it takes to sign either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg
   • In order to obtain either of these guys, the Yanks will need to commit to both a hefty amount of years and dollars. Dating back to 2009, Cashman has signed only 2 elite free-agent starters: CC (2009) and Tanaka (2014), both of whom have lived up to their contracts. As his track record suggests, if Cash isn’t fully sold on a pitcher, he’ll gladly let them sign elsewhere. At 29yrs old, coming off 2 elite seasons, while staying relatively healthy throughout his career, Cole seems to be the more attractive option.
2. Sign multiple high quality, but not certified aces, at a lower commitment
   • If for some reason the Yankees are not sold on the value vs asking price of Cole and Strasburg, they’ll likely look to add multiple quality arms that provide depth to a rotation that dealt with serious injuries in 2019. It takes a unique type of player to thrive in the pressure filled Bronx (looking at you Sonny Grey), but the following pitchers are worth taking a look at that could be there for the taking with 3-4yr deals:
     • Zach Wheeler
     • Dallas Keuchel
     • Kyle Gibson
     • Rick Porcello

Outfield:

While there are questions surrounding how healthy Stanton can stay and what Hicks will look like when he returns (assuming he does in the 2nd half), the Yankees don’t necessarily have to make a major outfield acquisition, but more so focus on their existing depth and fill in the gaps as needed. I envision Cashman addressing the outfield as follows:

• Bring Back Brett Gardner: the Yanks signed Gardy, who’s been with the club for 11 years, to a 1yr/$7mil deal before 2019. They viewed him as a 4th outfielder set to receive limited playing time, however after the injury bug hit Hicks, Stanton, and Judge, Gardy was thrust into an everyday role. At 36 yrs old, he produced one of his best seasons, with career highs in HR’s (28) and RBI’s (74) to go along with a respectable .251 BA. It’s clear he wants to return to the Bronx and would likely accept another 1yr deal with a slight increase to around $10 million.
• Plug & Play With Existing Depth: Mike Tauchman emerged seemingly out of nowhere last season and was a valuable member of the everyday lineup before his season pre-maturely ended in September with a hamstring injury. In addition to Tauchman, solid young players Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade will also be on the 2020 40-man roster and are more than capable of producing at the big league level
• Other Free-Agents: If the Yankees don’t think Hicks will return this year and aren’t convinced that Gardner, Tauchman, and Frazier can replicate their 2019 success, there are several free-agent OF’s Cashman could go after. With Frazier pegged as almost certainly being part of any trade Cashman might make, and it being only a matter of time before Stanton permanently moves to DH, the Yankees could potentially want to sign a free-agent OF to a multi-year deal. If that’s the case, there are a few targets they should consider:
  • Marcell Ozuna
  • Nicholas Castellanos
  • Avisail Garcia
  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo – posted on 11/15

Shortstop:

In my opinion, how the Yankees plan to address their shortstop situation for 2020 is the probably the most intriguing storyline in the Bronx this off-season. The way I see things, there are 3 different areas the Yankees could look to: Free Agency, Internally, Trade Market

• Free Agency: Bring back Didi. After returning from off-season Tommy John surgery, Gregorious was never able to return to his 2018 form, resulting in a disappointing 82 games in 2019 capped off with a disastrous performance in the playoffs. Prior to being injured, Didi was well positioned to land a big time deal in free-agency (think 5yrs/$75mil range), but might now need to accept a bridge contract to re-establish his value. The Reds have already expressed interest and other teams will surely follow suit, but on the high end Didi is likely looking at a maximum 3 year deal. The Yankees have the hometown advantage and could probably come to an agreement on a 1 year deal in the $15 million range.
• Internal Moves: DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Gio Urshela, Miguel Andujar, and Mike Ford will all be returning in 2020, providing Cashman with several internal options to fill the shortstop position. The most likely scenario if the Yankees decide to stay internal would be to move Gleyber to SS, make DJ the primary 2B while backing up Voit/Ford at 1B, return Andujar to 3B while also transitioning him into a serviceable backup 2B, and move Gio to the bench as the backup at 3B
• Trade Market: With a deep farm system and several young major league ready players, Cashman could look to the trade market in order to obtain a shortstop. There are multiple attractive players the Yankees could pursue, but the one that sticks out the most to me on several fronts is Cleveland star Francisco Lindor.
  • Why Cleveland Might Trade Him: On the surface, it seems crazy that the Indians would be willing to trade their best player who’s 26yrs old, a 4x All-Star, and is still 2 more years away from hitting free-agency. Despite having a 93 win season in 2019, the Indians failed to make the playoffs, and it would appear their current championship window is closing. As a small market team, the Indians can’t afford to re-sign Lindor once he becomes a free-agent, so trading him seems to be more a matter of when rather than if. The Indians could easily wait to see how the first half of 2020 plays out and still pull off a pricey trade at the deadline, but Lindor’s value will never be higher than it is now and there’s always the fear of injury.
  • What Would The Asking Price Be: In one word, huge. Last off-season we saw several stars get dealt (most notably JT Realmuto, Paul Goldschmidt, James Paxton, and Robinson Cano) all of which commanded in return a mix of 3-4 prospects/major league ready players and in some cases compensation on top. Lindor is a better than all of the above mentioned players, so one would have to imagine the Indians would ask for significantly more.
  • How The Yankees Could Pull Off A Trade: Unlike most of the trades Cashman has made in recent years, he would have to get creative with this one. The current farm system is very talented due to recent international signings, however, the majority of the Yanks top prospects are several years away from the bigs. Cleveland still sees themselves as being competitive in 2020, so would likely be looking for a package that helps fill their immediate major league needs, improves a middle of the road farm system, and reduces the 2020 payroll. With that in mind, a proposal could look something this:
    • Yankees Receive: Francisco Lindor and Corey Kluber (owed $18mil for the next two years)
    • Indians Receive: Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia, Estevan Florial, and Gio Urshela

Activity should remain fairly quiet until the Winter Meetings on December 8-12, but nonetheless I expect it to be a very interesting off-season for Brian Cashman and the Yankees.