Earlier this week it came out that the Texas Rangers have interest in trading for Miguel Andjuar. Following Gio Urshela’s breakout performance in 2019, Andjuar is no longer a lock to be the Yankees 3rd Baseman in 2020, so it only makes sense that the Yankees should entertain trade offers for him. Initially I expected that if Andjuar were to be traded, it would be as part of a larger package in order for the Yankees to obtain a top of the rotation starter. With the Rangers appearing to have proactively initiated trade talks for Andjuar, it raises the question of what the Yankees could possibly get in return?
Andjuar surprised everyone with his performance in 2018, batting .297 with 27 HR’s and 92 RBI’s. Unfortunately he only appeared in 12 games during 2019 before having to undergo season ending surgery on his right shoulder in May. Shoulder injuries are a serious deal, especially when it’s on a players throwing/batting arm as was Miggy’s case, so his trade value is relatively low right now. However, the Rangers have been somewhat in desperation mode since the end of 2018 trying to fill the void at 3B left by Adrian Beltre, so trading for a young, MLB ready player with 4yrs of control is very attractive to them. A reasonable asking price in return for Andjuar would be 2 players: 1 prospect and 1 who could provide value at the big league level in 2020. Working within these parameters, I like the following players:
Emmanuel Clase
The 21yr old right handed pitcher made his major league debut last August, appearing in 21 games out of the bullpen. He pitched 23.1 innings, posting a 2.31 ERA and a respectable 3.5 SO to Walk ratio. The Rangers have depth in their relievers at both the major league level and on the farm, making Clase expendable and an attractive trade candidate.
Davis Wendzel
The Rangers selected Davis Wendzel out of Baylor in the first round of this years June Amateur Draft and is currently ranked as the #9 prospect in the system. Only 21yrs old, Wendzel is still a long ways away from being MLB ready, however is already well regarded by most scouts as a solid 3B who has power at the plate. Wendzel may ultimately have a tough time making it to the majors as a Texas Ranger, as he currently sits behind fellow 3rd basemen and #1 prospect Josh Jung, who’s expected to be called up in 2021. If the Rangers are looking to trade for a 3B, whether it be Andjuar or someone else, Wendzel’s days in Texas might be coming to an end.
The Yankees acquired J.A. Happ from the Blue Jays at the 2018 trade deadline, hoping he would give the rotation a much needed boost ahead of a promising playoff run. Happ started 11 games for the Yankees in 2018, exceeding expectations by posting 7-0 record and 2.69 ERA, thus being rewarded a 2yr contract after the season. Unfortunately the 36 year old veteran couldn’t replicate that success in 2019, finishing with a 4.91 ERA across 30 starts, and was subsequently relegated to bullpen duties in October. The most concerning part of Happ’s 2019 season was that he was never able to string together a stretch of consistent outings, making it hard for the Yankees to know what they would be getting every 5th day.
With 1yr left on his contract and now 37, it’s unclear what Happ’s future will look like in 2020. Cashman has already made it widely known that he’ll be aggressively trying to add at least 1 new arm, which we all expect will happen. With starters Jordan Montgomery, Domingo Herman, and Deivi Garcia all on the 40-man roster, the Yankees could be looking to trade the veteran lefty. While his value is currently low, there are a few teams that could be potential suitors for J.A. Happ’s services.
Seattle Mariners
Brian Cashman and Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto have been frequent trade partners, with names like Edwin Encarnacion, James Paxton, and Adam Warren all swapping teams in the past 2 seasons. The Mariners are in the midst of a full on rebuild and traded away several good players with bad contracts last year (Robinson Cano, Encarnacion, etc.), so I’d imagine they would want to shed another bad contract in exchange for Happ. One player that fits the mold is Dee Gordon, the 31yr old second baseman who is set to receive $14 million each of the next 2 seasons. By trading Gordon for Happ, the Mariners would add an extra $3 million to their 2020 payroll, but ultimately save $11 million in 2021. The Yankees would gladly take on Gordan’s contract, as he would slide in as the everyday 2nd baseman, allowing Gleyber to move over to SS and fill the void left by Didi Gregorious.
Philadelphia Phillies
After signing Bryce Harper last off-season, the Phillies finished 2019 with a .500 record, good for 3rd place in the NL East and well short of making the playoffs. Needing to add to their rotation heading into 2020, could a reunion with J.A. Happ (who began his career with the Phillies) be a viable option? It would be a relatively low risk/high reward move for GM Matt Klentak, with the asking price likely being 1 top 30 prospect or 2 low level prospects. Happ would add value to the Phillies as a 5th starter, a left handed arm in a righty dominated rotation, and serve as another veteran presence alongside Jake Arrieta to mentor youngsters Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, and Vince Velasquez.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox have already made the biggest splash this off-season, signing free-agent catcher Yasmini Grandel to a 4yr deal. In 2019, the White Sox had a -124 run differential and a collective ERA of 4.90, both ranking among the 10 worst in the league, so fixing their pitching is a big area of focus heading into 2020. While they have an ace in Lucas Giolito, they lack both depth and experience after that, with none of the starters on their current 40-man roster being older than 28. The young core could very much benefit from having Happ’s veteran presence both in the locker room and on the mound, as there are several players in the farm system likely to get meaningful playing time in the majors this season. Realistically the White Sox are still a year away from being true contenders, so trading for Happ with only 1 year of control left might be a long shot. Nonetheless, with no standout team in the AL Central, the Sox could make one or two additional moves and very well be in the mix for a divisional title in 2020.
With the 2019 season behind us and the Hot Stove just starting to heat up, let’s take a look at where the Yankees need to improve for 2020 and how they can do so
After an abrupt end to 2019 thanks to Jose Altuve and the sign stealing Astros, the Yankees face immense pressure to improve their roster heading into what’s considered to be a World Series or bust 2020 season. Aside from the obvious need to upgrade the starting rotation, additional holes must be filled left by an injured Aaron Hicks, retiring CC Sabathia, and free agents Betances, Didi, Gardy, Edwin, Cameron Maybin, and Romine.
From signing new faces, to trades, to bringing back some beloved veterans, the Yankees have many options to improve a roster that fell 6 wins short of #28 last season. Let’s take a look.
Needs
While many will label the 2019 season as a failure, the Yankees managed to win 103 games, run away with the AL East division title that included the reigning champion Red Sox, and swept the home run record setting Twins in the ALDS. Those stats are impressive on their own, but even more so when you factor in that the Yankees accomplished all of this despite almost every one of their starters spending a significant amount of time on the IL. With the majority of their core returning (and hopefully healthy), there are only a few key areas where the Yankees need to look to improve:
Starting Pitching: While Sevy, Tanaka, and Paxton are a formidable trio, none are a true shut-down ace, something that’s become a necessity to have in order to win in October. There’s also a void on the backend of the rotation that will need to be addressed with the retirement of CC Sabathia and uncertainties surrounding Domingo Herman (possible suspension) and Jordan Montgomery (coming off of Tommy John)
Outfield: With Aaron Hicks set to miss at least the first half of 2020 and Giancarlo Stanton spending more time on the IL than in LF the past two years, only Aaron Judge can currently be relied on as an everyday outfielder.
Shortstop: The Yankees opted not to extend Didi Gregorious a qualifying offer, thus making him a free agent. There’s still a chance he could return in 2020, but if not, Cashman will need to get creative in order to fill the position
Pitchers:
To address the rotation needs, the Yankees will almost certainly look to the free-agent market. There are two ways to go about doing so: either sign 1 of the 2 elite aces available or add depth through signing 2 of the many other available arms.
Do whatever it takes to sign either Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg
In order to obtain either of these guys, the Yanks will need to commit to both a hefty amount of years and dollars. Dating back to 2009, Cashman has signed only 2 elite free-agent starters: CC (2009) and Tanaka (2014), both of whom have lived up to their contracts. As his track record suggests, if Cash isn’t fully sold on a pitcher, he’ll gladly let them sign elsewhere. At 29yrs old, coming off 2 elite seasons, while staying relatively healthy throughout his career, Cole seems to be the more attractive option.
Sign multiple high quality, but not certified aces, at a lower commitment
If for some reason the Yankees are not sold on the value vs asking price of Cole and Strasburg, they’ll likely look to add multiple quality arms that provide depth to a rotation that dealt with serious injuries in 2019. It takes a unique type of player to thrive in the pressure filled Bronx (looking at you Sonny Grey), but the following pitchers are worth taking a look at that could be there for the taking with 3-4yr deals:
Zach Wheeler
Dallas Keuchel
Kyle Gibson
Rick Porcello
Outfield:
While there are questions surrounding how healthy Stanton can stay and what Hicks will look like when he returns (assuming he does in the 2nd half), the Yankees don’t necessarily have to make a major outfield acquisition, but more so focus on their existing depth and fill in the gaps as needed. I envision Cashman addressing the outfield as follows:
Bring Back Brett Gardner: the Yanks signed Gardy, who’s been with the club for 11 years, to a 1yr/$7mil deal before 2019. They viewed him as a 4th outfielder set to receive limited playing time, however after the injury bug hit Hicks, Stanton, and Judge, Gardy was thrust into an everyday role. At 36 yrs old, he produced one of his best seasons, with career highs in HR’s (28) and RBI’s (74) to go along with a respectable .251 BA. It’s clear he wants to return to the Bronx and would likely accept another 1yr deal with a slight increase to around $10 million.
Plug & Play With Existing Depth: Mike Tauchman emerged seemingly out of nowhere last season and was a valuable member of the everyday lineup before his season pre-maturely ended in September with a hamstring injury. In addition to Tauchman, solid young players Clint Frazier and Tyler Wade will also be on the 2020 40-man roster and are more than capable of producing at the big league level
Other Free-Agents: If the Yankees don’t think Hicks will return this year and aren’t convinced that Gardner, Tauchman, and Frazier can replicate their 2019 success, there are several free-agent OF’s Cashman could go after. With Frazier pegged as almost certainly being part of any trade Cashman might make, and it being only a matter of time before Stanton permanently moves to DH, the Yankees could potentially want to sign a free-agent OF to a multi-year deal. If that’s the case, there are a few targets they should consider:
Marcell Ozuna
Nicholas Castellanos
Avisail Garcia
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo – posted on 11/15
Shortstop:
In my opinion, how the Yankees plan to address their shortstop situation for 2020 is the probably the most intriguing storyline in the Bronx this off-season. The way I see things, there are 3 different areas the Yankees could look to: Free Agency, Internally, Trade Market
Free Agency: Bring back Didi. After returning from off-season Tommy John surgery, Gregorious was never able to return to his 2018 form, resulting in a disappointing 82 games in 2019 capped off with a disastrous performance in the playoffs. Prior to being injured, Didi was well positioned to land a big time deal in free-agency (think 5yrs/$75mil range), but might now need to accept a bridge contract to re-establish his value. The Reds have already expressed interest and other teams will surely follow suit, but on the high end Didi is likely looking at a maximum 3 year deal. The Yankees have the hometown advantage and could probably come to an agreement on a 1 year deal in the $15 million range.
Internal Moves: DJ LeMahieu, Gleyber Torres, Luke Voit, Gio Urshela, Miguel Andujar, and Mike Ford will all be returning in 2020, providing Cashman with several internal options to fill the shortstop position. The most likely scenario if the Yankees decide to stay internal would be to move Gleyber to SS, make DJ the primary 2B while backing up Voit/Ford at 1B, return Andujar to 3B while also transitioning him into a serviceable backup 2B, and move Gio to the bench as the backup at 3B
Trade Market: With a deep farm system and several young major league ready players, Cashman could look to the trade market in order to obtain a shortstop. There are multiple attractive players the Yankees could pursue, but the one that sticks out the most to me on several fronts is Cleveland star Francisco Lindor.
Why Cleveland Might Trade Him: On the surface, it seems crazy that the Indians would be willing to trade their best player who’s 26yrs old, a 4x All-Star, and is still 2 more years away from hitting free-agency. Despite having a 93 win season in 2019, the Indians failed to make the playoffs, and it would appear their current championship window is closing. As a small market team, the Indians can’t afford to re-sign Lindor once he becomes a free-agent, so trading him seems to be more a matter of when rather than if. The Indians could easily wait to see how the first half of 2020 plays out and still pull off a pricey trade at the deadline, but Lindor’s value will never be higher than it is now and there’s always the fear of injury.
What Would The Asking Price Be: In one word, huge. Last off-season we saw several stars get dealt (most notably JT Realmuto, Paul Goldschmidt, James Paxton, and Robinson Cano) all of which commanded in return a mix of 3-4 prospects/major league ready players and in some cases compensation on top. Lindor is a better than all of the above mentioned players, so one would have to imagine the Indians would ask for significantly more.
How The Yankees Could Pull Off A Trade: Unlike most of the trades Cashman has made in recent years, he would have to get creative with this one. The current farm system is very talented due to recent international signings, however, the majority of the Yanks top prospects are several years away from the bigs. Cleveland still sees themselves as being competitive in 2020, so would likely be looking for a package that helps fill their immediate major league needs, improves a middle of the road farm system, and reduces the 2020 payroll. With that in mind, a proposal could look something this:
Yankees Receive: Francisco Lindor and Corey Kluber (owed $18mil for the next two years)
Activity should remain fairly quiet until the Winter Meetings on December 8-12, but nonetheless I expect it to be a very interesting off-season for Brian Cashman and the Yankees.
“We’re very proud to bring a dynamic player, someone who can make a difference on the offense and defensive side, and we look forward to him being one of many pieces to do a very important puzzle as we move forward in our efforts to continue the winning tradition here, and we look forward to a lot of enjoyment in the coming years here in the Bronx.“
Brian Cashman, December 13th 2013 at Ellsbury’s Introductory Press Conference
After missing the playoffs for only the 2nd time in 19yrs and finishing with a record of 85-77, their worst since 1992, the 2013 New York Yankees season was a complete disaster and unacceptable in the eyes of the fanbase and ownership. How would the Evil Empire respond to defeat, debacle, and humiliation? Simple answer, with their checkbooks.
On December 3rd, the Yankees made their first high profile signing, inking former Braves catcher, Brian McCann, to a 5yr/$85 million contract. Just a few days later they struck again, signing longtime Boston Red Sox and the first American Indian of Navajo descent to reach the major leagues, Jacoby Ellsbury, to a whopping 7yr/$153 million deal, the third richest contract ever given to an outfielder. Finally, they wrapped up their assault on the free-agent market by signing veteran Carlos Beltran for 3yrs/$45 million.
Now we all know the story of 2014. Despite these big free agent signings, the Yankees finished with a record of 84-78 (1 game worse than 2013), once again missed the playoffs, and the only high point of the season was Derek Jeter’s walk-off single in a meaningless final game of the year and the last of DJ’s Hall of Fame career. By 2016, it was clear that none of the 2013 signings would yield a World Series, resulting in Brian Cashman trading Beltran to the Rangers in August and McCaan to the Astros in November, signaling the Bronx had officially begun a rebuild.
Unfortunately, despite Cashman’s best efforts, he simply could never get rid of Ellsbury and his historically bad contract. The Yankees finally ended their nightmare on Wednesday by releasing Ellsbury, who hasn’t played a game since 2017 and is still owed $21 million for next season plus a $5 million buyout for 2021.
As we officially put Mr. Ellsbury out to pasture, let’s take a look back at what the Yankees ultimately ended up getting for their investment:
2017: 112 games, .264 BA, 94 Hits, 39 RBI’s, 7 HR’s, Lost In ALCS – Jacoby had only 12 plate appearances in 13 games and contributed 0 hits
2018: 0 games, had surgery on his hip
2019: 0 games, had about 15 different injuries
2020: Might attempt a comeback, but will likely hang out on his couch
2021: After failed comeback attempt in 2020, officially retires and moves to Costa Rica
There you have it folks. All in all, the Yankees paid Jacoby Ellsbury $153 million for 520 games ($294,230 per game), a few stolen bases, and 7 trips to the DL. So farewell to you Jacoby, I hope you enjoy that $153 million (if you haven’t already spent it all on medical bills).
Gerrit Cole Has Officially Been A Free Agent For Less Than A Week And Early Rumors Suggest That Won’t Change Anytime Soon
By unsurprisingly rejecting the Astros’ qualifying offer last Thursday, Gerrit Cole officially became this off-season’s most coveted free agent. While a dark horse could always emerge (as we saw with the Padres and Manny Machado last year), Cole will most likely land with either the Yankees, Dodgers, Angels, or Phillies, all teams who have deep pockets and a glaring need for an elite ace.
Cole is represented by the infamous Scott Boras, who almost certainly has his eyes on securing his superstar client a record setting contract and who almost always gets what he wants, that’s why he’s the best agent in baseball. However, as we’ve seen in recent years with Boras’ biggest clients (i.e. Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel, JD Martinez), general managers will likely have to be patient and play the Boras waiting game if they want to win the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes. With a very talented group of free agent pitchers combined with the need for arms, a pro-longed decision by Cole could ultimately give the Yankees the advantage they need to secure their future ace.
As the hot stove heats up, so will the rumors, but before that happens let’s take a look at how Cole delaying his decision effects each of the current teams in pursuit of his services.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The best team in the NL throughout the 2019 regular season was destined for a 3rd straight World Series appearance before being upset by the now champion Nationals in a dramatic Game 5 of the NLDS. With a young, talented line-up, ace Clayton Kershaw, and lockdown closer Kenley Jansen all under control in the coming seasons, the Dodgers remain well positioned to compete for a title in 2020. However, in order to finally reach the mountain top, they’ll need to bolster a rotation that will likely not include Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill, both of whom have hit the free agent market.
Effects of a Delayed Cole Decision
A delayed Cole decision would hurt the Dodgers for 2 primary reasons. First, they’ve consistently had one of the highest payrolls in the MLB for several years now and currently stand at $165 million for 2020 before 11 players, including as Walker Bueller, go to arbitration. With the Luxury Tax threshold expected to be around $208 million next season and their young core set to receive substantial salary increases in the coming years, can the Dodgers afford to sign Cole for $30 mil/year and another middle of the rotation starter? Management has not be hesitant to spend in the past, but as we saw with the Yankees, eventually every team relents to the dreaded Luxury Tax.
Second, the Dodgers need to add multiple starting pitchers. Kershaw remains one of the leagues best, but with a history of injuries in recent years and well documented playoff struggles, he’s simply not capable of carrying the team to a World Series alone. If the last 3 World Series champions have shown us anything, it’s that you need at least 2 (ideally 3) top-tier starters to win it all. The Dallas Keuchel disaster last off-season served as a warning sign for this year’s free agent class, and we should see a lot more players sign much quicker. Is going all in on Cole and subsequently letting the likes of Wheeler, Bumgardner, Porcello, and Keuchel sign elsewhere a risk the Dodgers are really willing to take?
Los Angeles Angels
The Angels made a statement early this off-season by bringing home manager Joe Maddon to turnaround a franchise that has not made an appearance in October since 2014 and are coming off of 4 straight losing seasons. The Angels consistently have ranked in the top 10 of highest payrolls in the league and owner Arte Moreno has shown a willingness to pay top dollar for superstars, which bodes well for their chances of landing Cole. However, the Angels are extremely top heavy, with 5 players accounting for over 83% of their 2020 payroll that currently stands at $135 million (not including arbitration eligible players). In recent years, the Angels payroll has hovered in the range of $170 million, but with the addition of Maddon I fully expect Moreno is willing to substantially increase that number for 2020 and flirt with the Luxury Tax threshold in order to turn the Angels back into a contender.
Effects of a Delayed Cole Decision
It’s a well known fact that Gerrit Cole is an LA native who’s expressed interest in spending the remainder of his career in his hometown, and the Angels are well aware of the strategic advantage that gives them. The issue is that the Angels need more than just one ace in order to get themselves in contention for 2020. In 2019, the Angels had 8 pitchers who started over 10 games, none of which had an ERA below 4.50. Needless to say, that’s an issue. While adding Cole would give the rotation a huge boost, if the Angels really want to build a playoff caliber team they’ll need a several other proven and reliable arms. Unless they can somehow convince Cole to sign with them quickly, they’ll likely need to look to more affordable arms on shorter terms deals in order to manage the payroll and provide depth to a team that isn’t too far way from being a contender
Philidelphia Phillies
The biggest story of the off-season last year was where Bryce Harper would land. Well as we all know he ended up signing a 13yr contract with the Phillies, who also ended up trading for catcher JT Realmuto and SS Jean Segura. While promising on paper, 2019 didn’t exactly go how the Phillies imagined, finishing 4th in the NL East with a .500 record and missing the playoffs. With the emergence of young pitchers Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin, a core of reliable position players such as Rhys Hopkins and Cesar Hernandez, and a stable of veterans, the Phillies are only a few pieces away from being a contender in the NL East.
Effects of a Delayed Cole Decision
Arrieta, Realmuto, Hernandez, and Jay Bruce are all heading into the final year of their contracts, which translates to about $42 million that will be coming off the books after this season. None of those players are likely to be re-signed at their current prices, so the Phillies can afford to go after multiple high priced free agents. The biggest decision the Phillies need to make isn’t whether they’ll shell out top dollars, it’s to whom those dollars should go to. The Phillies have holes at 3B, CF, RF, and most notably the bullpen, with closer David Robertson likely to miss all of 2020 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August. It’s expected that GM Matt Klentak’s primary focus will be to aggressively pursue Anthony Rendon, so if that’s the case, Cole delaying his decision until January would be beneficial to Phillies by allowing them to focus on their other needs first.
New York Yankees
The Yankees entered Spring Training as the favorites to win it all in 2019, carrying with them World Series or bust expectations. After a roller-coaster, injury plagued regular season that resulted in 103 wins and an AL East title, the Yankees made quick work of the Twins in the ALDS, but flamed out in the ALCS by losing to the Astros in 6 games. Looking towards 2020, the Yankees only have one glaring hole that needs to be filled: acquiring a true #1 ace to lead a rotation that will include Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka, and James Paxton. For the past several years, Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman made it of the utmost importance to stay under the Luxury Tax threshold and were successful in doing so, setting them up to enter this free-agency season with blank checks ready to be written.
Effects of a Delayed Cole Decision
Unlike the other 3 teams mentioned above, the Yankees sole focus this off-season will be adding a true #1 starter. The majority of the fan base feels that anybody other than Cole or Strasburg would be considered a miss, and after failing to sign or trade for several ace’s that were available in recent years (Corbin, Sale, Cole, Verlander, and so forth), I firmly believe the message has gotten through to the organization. Looking at Cashman’s history of off-season moves, it wouldn’t surprise me if he used the Winter Meetings to acquire an ace via trade, as the Yankees have a deep farm system and major league log jam. If Cole does decide to delay his decision, it buys Cashman more time to explore such a trade while still having his check ready to go whenever Boras calls.
Prediction
When the dust settles and teams start loading up the trucks headed to Spring Training, Gerrit Cole will be en-route to Tampa as the newest member of the New York Yankees on a 6yr, $250 million contract
161st and Rivera 